Orwell in 2026

Orwell in 2026

9 January 2025

1984 was not a prediction, yet at times the world seems to fall back into George Orwell’s lines. In my imagination — and perhaps not only there — three power blocs appear to be taking shape once again.

Trump takes “Oceania”: an America that withdraws, relativizes NATO, and lets Ukraine fall away. Putin embodies Eurasia: power, territory, and influence above all else. Xi stands at the center of East Asia: tightly controlled, technologically advanced, and ideologically closed.

Then there is the old, familiar battlefield: the Middle East and North Africa. As in Orwell’s world, not a fixed bloc, but a permanently contested space where influence shifts and loyalties are temporary.

At times, such an abstract world view suddenly becomes concrete. Venezuela was such a moment. Not because of what happened, but because of what did not. The striking passivity of the other great powers may have said more than any harsh words. As if everyone knew where the boundaries lay — and that intervention was not worth the cost.

Perhaps projection. Perhaps a coincidence. But Orwell warned precisely of power that does not shout, but remains silent. And today, that silence sounds disturbingly loud.

Miguel Goede