Carrying Capacity

Carrying Capacity

7 August 2026

Today, the Executive Summary of the carrying capacity study of our tourism sector finally arrived on my WhatsApp. In parentheses: the VBC still has not taken a position, even though it announced that it was waiting for this report.

The report and the articles in the newspaper create the narrative that we are approaching the limit. I would argue that this is politically correct, or something along those lines, because we crossed that limit a long time ago.

Look at what the report itself says: In 2024, Curaçao hosted 9.85 visitors for every resident, nearly double the sustainable benchmark of 5. By 2030, that ratio could climb to 14.91 visitors per resident, placing the island close to overtourism levels. For context, Aruba, widely cited as an overtourism case study, ranks at 21.4.

I put it simply: the sustainable benchmark is 5, and we are already close to 10. We are therefore almost 100% above what the report considers sustainable.

It makes me think of those naïve people who thought that the Blue Wave effect — the worldwide exposure of Curaçao as the smallest country ever to qualify for the World Cup — could only be a good thing because it would attract more visitors and investors.

Then there is a list of measures and things that need to be done, and policies that need to be developed. The summary then concludes: The tools are defined. The policy directions are mapped. Stakeholders are aligned. What is needed now is execution.

And that is precisely the problem. Not so long ago, the National Export Strategy ended with words to the same effect. But time and again, it has been demonstrated that we are unable to implement. This has been made abundantly clear, more than once, in the implementation of the Landspakket.

And we will undoubtedly try again with the same people: repeating the same thing and expecting a different result. The result will therefore be that, like many other Caribbean islands, we will experience the silent (poly)crises in their full magnitude.

As long as we do not work together and deploy our best people, our chances are virtually nil. The problem is no longer that Curaçao does not know what needs to be done. The problem is that Curaçao seems insufficiently capable of doing what it already knows needs to be done.

Miguel Goede