Black Page Trump Venezuela

Black Page Trump Venezuela

4 January 2026

Yesterday was more than a black day. The arrest of President Maduro in Caracas by U.S. special forces is not an event that merely marks a single day, nor just another black page in history. We may have entered a black era.

The smoke from the New Year’s fireworks had barely cleared when far greater fireworks followed — literally in Venezuela and figuratively across the rest of the world. We now await whether the smoke will dissipate or persist in the air.

What began as the fight against narco-terrorism gradually turned into the securing of Venezuela’s oil reserves. By nightfall, Maduro and his wife landed in New York in handcuffs, where they will stand trial on charges including drug trafficking.

Initially, it appeared that Trump sought to restore democracy by supporting the opposition, which may have won the most recent elections. On 10 December, the opposition leader was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize — a prize Trump himself would have liked to receive. Trump has since announced that María Corina Machado is too weak and that he himself will govern Venezuela during the transition. In the meantime, American companies will restart Venezuela’s oil production.

In other words, there are only losers. Venezuela believes it is free, but in reality, it still has no democracy — and it has lost control over its natural resources.

The question is how Trump believes he can govern a large and complex country like Venezuela. The United States has never succeeded in controlling the aftermath of a dictator's removal. Perhaps Grenada and Panama are exceptions, but beyond that, the list does not extend.

The fact is that, as I said on 29 December in my television interview with Jürgen Arvelo, Trump has already blown up the global trading order with his tariff war, and with this intervention, he has now also undermined the international legal order. On 16 December, in a news segment with reporter Naphtaly Leito, I explained that everything was escalating. Trump had entered a phase in which Venezuela’s airspace would be violated. I estimated that he would conduct surgical strikes, but the question remained whether he would also deploy ground forces.

In response to her question, I said that Trump’s objective was regime change and access to oil and other raw materials required for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. I also explained the Monroe Doctrine and Trump's policies. I said then: there is a tendency not to take Trump seriously when he makes extreme statements, but what we have seen so far is that he follows through on his promises.

On 12 December, Floor Noor of NRC asked me whether I truly believed it would come to this. I answered that, just as with Ukraine, we were watching troops being built up before our eyes while continuing to believe that war would not come. The arrest of Maduro was also a surprise—not that it occurred, but the timing and manner in which it did.

This is only the beginning. Many questions remain about how this could have occurred and what will follow. How could a Maduro guarded by Cuban security forces be taken from his bed? Why have China and Russia not yet responded clearly?

What we have seen so far is that Trump is taking his time. He waits. And he is preparing his next move.

Miguel Goede