Lessons from Curaçao's February 2025 Primaries: Voter Engagement and Political Dynamics

Lessons from Curaçao's February 2025 Primaries: Voter Engagement and Political Dynamics

February 7, 2025

In anticipation of the upcoming March 21, 2025, elections, I engaged with individuals from various political parties involved in their respective campaigns. To my surprise, none had analyzed the primaries held on February 1 and 2, 2025. Eight parties were required to participate in these primaries, while six had already secured their spots in the March elections due to holding at least one seat in the current parliament.

Key Observations from the Primaries:

1. Low Voter Turnout: The primaries experienced a notably low voter turnout, indicating a general lack of enthusiasm among the electorate.

2. Preference for Established Parties: Voters showed little interest in new parties, suggesting their considerations primarily focused on the six parties already qualified for the elections.

3. Impact of Financial Investment: The party that invested the most financially in the primaries garnered the highest number of votes and advanced to the next stage.

4. Organizational Longevity and Training: The second party to advance has been active for years, focusing on recruiting and training members, which contributed to their success.

5. Ineffectiveness of Social Media Popularity: Parties that have been in existence for years and maintain a constant presence in the news and on social media did not advance, despite having numerous likes on platforms like Facebook.

6. Lack of Communicated Programs: None of these parties had a clear program or communicated one to the public.

Insights Gained:

• Financial Resources are Crucial: Adequate funding plays a significant role in campaign success.

• Voter Decisions are Largely Made: Many voters have already limited their options or know whom they will vote for.

• Program Visibility is Essential: A clear and communicated program is vital for gaining voter support.

• Social Media Alone is Insufficient: A campaign solely based on social media presence does not guarantee success.

My services are available for consultation for parties seeking guidance. Notably, several parties have enlisted experts who lack sufficient expertise, as evidenced by their failure to provide an analysis of the primaries.

Reflecting on PAIS:

In a recent radio interview on February 6, 2025, a former member of the now-defunct party PAIS discussed an internal evaluation regarding the party's decline from winning four seats in 2012 to losing all in 2016. To my knowledge, no written analysis exists on this matter.

PAIS emerged during a highly polarized period, with widespread dissatisfaction towards parties like PAR and MAN. The founders, except for the leader who had a PNP background, originated from these parties. There was also significant discontent with the Schotte cabinet, comprising MFK, PS, and MAN. After its fall, amidst considerable turmoil, Schotte and Monk claimed internationally that a coup had occurred, leading to an interim government preparing new elections.

PAIS unexpectedly supported PS following the elections, contrary to voter expectations of collaboration with PAR to address previous governmental issues. Throughout their four-year term, despite evident problems, PAIS did not withdraw from the cabinet. Notably, when multiple reports highlighted problems at the Curaçao House, the political leader of PAIS in the parliament stated there was no "smoking gun" to dismiss the authorized minister.

By the 2016 elections, voters had ample reason to hold PAIS accountable. Thus, the situation was more complex than the former member suggested in the February 6 interview, where he mentioned the party lacked connection with voters and appeared distant.

In conclusion, the recent primaries and the trajectory of parties like PAIS offer valuable lessons on voter engagement, clear communication, and the critical role of strategic planning in political campaigns. And it is about emotions.

Miguel Goede